Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $391,112$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{448,086.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(448,086.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $22,542$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,725.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.1)}}\) (asimptote \(36,725.2\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,156$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $269,578$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{354,427.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 161.9)}}\) (asimptote \(354,427.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,657$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,648.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 136.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,648.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,597$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,487$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,864.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 120.6)}}\) (asimptote \(43,864.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,060$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(60.1 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,270.2}{1 + 10^{-0.350 (t - 106.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,270.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,335$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,590$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,647.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(88,647.5\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $742$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(25.1 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{862.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 123.5)}}\) (asimptote \(862.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,875$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $91,244$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(5.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,121.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 125.9)}}\) (asimptote \(90,121.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $548$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(93 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{515.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 70.4)}}\) (asimptote \(515.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,042$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $137,565$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{560,277.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 240.0)}}\) (asimptote \(560,277.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,040$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(81 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,522$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $322,237$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324,871.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.7)}}\) (asimptote \(324,871.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,137$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(276 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,280.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 107.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,280.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,854$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,778$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,489.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 131.1)}}\) (asimptote \(56,489.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $202$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(10.7 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{201.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.1)}}\) (asimptote \(201.3\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,002$ on 2020-09-08