Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $391,112$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{448,086.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(448,086.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,542$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,725.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.1)}}\) (asimptote \(36,725.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,156$ on 2020-09-08

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $269,578$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{354,427.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 161.9)}}\) (asimptote \(354,427.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,657$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,648.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 136.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,648.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,597$ on 2020-09-08

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,487$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,864.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 120.6)}}\) (asimptote \(43,864.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,060$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(60.1 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,270.2}{1 + 10^{-0.350 (t - 106.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,270.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,335$ on 2020-09-08

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,590$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,647.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(88,647.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $742$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(25.1 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{862.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 123.5)}}\) (asimptote \(862.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,875$ on 2020-09-08

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,244$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,121.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 125.9)}}\) (asimptote \(90,121.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $548$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(93 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{515.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 70.4)}}\) (asimptote \(515.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,042$ on 2020-09-08

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,565$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{560,277.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 240.0)}}\) (asimptote \(560,277.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,040$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(81 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,522$ on 2020-09-08

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $322,237$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324,871.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.7)}}\) (asimptote \(324,871.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,137$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(276 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,280.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 107.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,280.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,854$ on 2020-09-08

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,778$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,489.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 131.1)}}\) (asimptote \(56,489.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $202$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(10.7 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{201.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.1)}}\) (asimptote \(201.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,002$ on 2020-09-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Singapore recovered 97%
Uzbekistan recovered 76%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 74%
Vietnam recovered 69%
Afghanistan recovered 69%
Saudi Arabia recovered 68%
Japan recovered 51%
Korea, South recovered 44%
Nepal recovered 19%
Bangladesh recovered 16%
Maldives recovered 8%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,087$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,837.3}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(84,837.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,733$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.56 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,684.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,684.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $422$ on 2020-09-08

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,091$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(-1.28 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,225.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 115.1)}}\) (asimptote \(54,225.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $603$ on 2020-09-08

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,281$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,544.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(57,544.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $358$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{450.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 126.8)}}\) (asimptote \(450.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,329$ on 2020-09-08

Vietnam⮸

Population $97,338,579$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,054$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(119 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-08-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(15.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 7.5)}}\) (asimptote \(36.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $151$ on 2020-09-08